The Agentic Shift: The Prediction Is Landing


Sunday 2nd May 2026

The Agentic Shift: The Prediction Is Landing

How Jamie Smith and I built Trusted Agents around a thesis about agentic commerce, why that thesis is proving right, and what it means for the leaders who need to move their organisations now.

Hi, if you are the person in your organisation who has been asked to make sense of agentic AI before everyone else is ready to act on it, this edition is written directly for you. It is the story of how Jamie Smith and I built Trusted Agents, what we saw coming, and why we think the window for getting ahead of this is narrower than most organisations realise.

In 20 seconds

The infrastructure that makes agentic commerce possible is going into production now, and the organisations that understand what that means before they are ready to act on it will set the terms for everyone else.

Jamie Smith and I founded Trusted Agents in January 2026 around a specific thesis: that agentic commerce would accelerate the moment a trusted infrastructure layer was strong enough to support an end-to-end transaction between a customer's agent and a business. That moment is arriving. Bain estimates the US market alone at $300 to $500 billion by 2030. Demand for what we do is accelerating with it.

This edition is our origin story. It is also a practical map for any leader who is being asked to make sense of this shift before their organisation is ready to act on it.

What's changed?

The protocols, standards, and identity infrastructure that allow AI agents to act on behalf of real people — securely, verifiably, and at scale — are moving from experimental to production.

Why it matters

Every B2C organisation will face customers who send agents to discover, compare, negotiate, transact, and complain on their behalf, and most of those organisations are not structurally ready to respond.

The decision it forces

When a customer's agent arrives at your digital door, you have four possible responses. Most organisations have not yet decided which one they are taking — or realised that not deciding is itself a choice.

We call this the Agentic Response Map.

What we’re tracking this week

  • The Oxford signal Last month I joined alumni from the Saïd Business School Oxford Executive AI Programme for a panel on agentic AI. The room was full of senior leaders already mid-process in helping their organisations make the shift. The questions they were still asking told me everything about where most large enterprises actually are. More on that in Section 4.1.
  • The $300–500 billion signal Bain now estimates that AI agents could be responsible for 15 to 25 percent of US e-commerce by 2030. They define agentic commerce as purchases initiated, influenced, or completed by third-party AI agents — excluding AI-assisted search. That is not a forecast about the distant future. That is a forecast about the next four years.

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How We Got Here

The shared conviction

Jamie Smith and I founded Trusted Agents in January 2026. But the thinking behind it goes back much further than that.

We met online during the pandemic, at one of the MyData and Internet Identity Workshop conferences that were bringing together a particular kind of person — people who believed, before it was fashionable to believe it, that individuals should have meaningful agency over their own data and the value it generates. By rights we should have met years earlier. When we did eventually compare notes, we realised we had been building toward the same idea from completely different directions.

That convergence is what Trusted Agents is built on.

Jamie's path

Jamie spent years working at the intersection of digital identity and human trust. At Evernym, and through his work with Control Shift, he was focused on a specific and underappreciated problem: how does a person prove something about themselves to a system — their identity, their permissions, their credentials — without surrendering control to that system?

That question sits at the foundation of everything agentic commerce requires. When a customer's agent acts on their behalf, the business on the other side needs to know: is this agent authorised? Is it acting for a real, verified person? Has the delegation been done correctly? Jamie had been building the trust and identity layer that answers those questions long before most organisations knew they needed to ask them.

My path (Gam)

I came at it from a different angle. I co-founded First Retail, recognised by Gartner as a Cool Vendor for our work on semantic infrastructure — the layer that gives agents the context they need to act accurately on behalf of real people. Not just permission to act, but understanding. Knowing what a person prefers, what they value, what they have consented to share, and what that means in the context of a specific transaction.

If Jamie's work answers the question of whether an agent can be trusted, my work addresses what that agent actually needs to know to be useful.

Why both sides matter

This is the argument at the centre of Trusted Agents, and it is worth being precise about it.

For agentic commerce to work, for a customer's agent to discover, compare, negotiate, and transact on their behalf in a way that any serious B2C organisation would accept, three things need to be true simultaneously.

The agent needs trusted identity: verifiable proof that it is acting for a real, authorised person, that the delegation has been made correctly, and that the permissions are current and specific.

The agent needs personal context: a portable, accurate understanding of the person's needs, preferences, and history that travels with the agent rather than being locked inside any single organisation's systems.

And the organisation the agent is dealing with needs clean, machine-readable data: accurate product information, pricing, availability, and policy that an agent can interpret and act on without human intervention.

Without all three, the transaction either fails or produces outcomes that nobody intended. Most organisations are currently missing at least two of them. That is not a technology problem. It is a readiness problem. And readiness is what Trusted Agents is built to address.

The prediction

When Jamie and I started mapping this out properly, we tracked the protocols and standards being developed to support agent-to-agent interaction. We studied the governance requirements. We looked at what machine-readable data actually needs to look like for an agent to use it reliably. We watched the identity infrastructure develop.

And we made a specific prediction: once that infrastructure layer was strong enough to support a complete, trusted, end-to-end agentic transaction, agentic commerce would accelerate fast. Not gradually. Fast. Because the underlying consumer behaviour — delegating decisions, automating routine purchases, using AI to navigate complex choices — was already there. The infrastructure was the missing piece, not the demand.

That infrastructure is now going in. Model Context Protocol [a standard that allows AI agents to connect to external systems and data sources in a structured, controlled way] is being adopted at speed. Agent-to-agent coordination frameworks are moving from experimental to production. The European Digital Identity Wallet is on track to reach 300 to 400 million people. Bain is forecasting $300 to $500 billion in agentic commerce in the US alone by 2030.

The prediction is landing.

Where it can go wrong

I want to be direct about this, because I said it to the room at Oxford and I will say it here.

The consistent mistake organisations make is not underestimating the technology. It is overestimating their own readiness to deploy it. Boards get sold on quick financial gains. Management is pushed to find cost reductions before the business is structurally prepared. Agentic tools get stood up on top of bad data and business processes that were designed for human workflows — and then people act surprised when things go wrong.

Here is the harder truth. AI agents are not digital colleagues. They do not exercise human judgment, human restraint, or human common sense. If your business process has a gap that a polite human would quietly work around, an agent will find that gap and push straight through it. If your pricing engine responds to signals that can be gamed, agents will game it. If your controls depend on human interpretation, you do not have controls. You have assumptions.

The organisations that will navigate this well are the ones that understand the shift structurally — not just technically — before they commit to pilots and platforms.

That is the conversation Jamie and I have been having with banks, travel companies, and retailers. It is the conversation Trusted Agents exists to have.

What's underneath this weeks headlines?

What I learned at Oxford Module X

Last month I joined alumni from the Oxford AI for Business Symposium (a.k.a. ‘Module X’), together with members of Oxbridge-AIx, for a panel discussion on agentic AI.

I want to be clear about who was in that room, it wasn't people who needed convincing that AI matters. They had already taken one of the most rigorous executive AI programmes available. Many of them were mid-process, actively working to help their organisations and ecosystems make the shift. They were serious, senior, and engaged.

And yet the questions they were still asking told me more about the real state of enterprise agentic AI than any analyst report I have read this year.

Where is this actually working versus where people think it is working? What is the one thing large organisations consistently get wrong? What will surprise us most in the next twelve months?

These are not beginner questions. They are the questions of people who have moved past the hype and are now confronting the operational reality. And the fact that they were still being asked, in that room, at that level, was its own signal.

My answer to the question about what organisations consistently get wrong was this: it is not underestimating the technology. It is overestimating the readiness of the organisation deploying it.

The pressure to move fast is real. In many of the businesses we speak with, the investment thesis has already been shaped by AI vendor promises. Boards have been sold rapid financial gains. Management is pushed to find cost reductions before the data is clean, the processes are redesigned, or the governance is in place. Agentic tools get deployed on top of broken infrastructure that was built for human workflows. The happy path works. The exception path is where the damage shows up.

What will surprise people most in the next twelve months? My answer was feedback loops. Not a smarter single agent, but small teams of agents discovering their own resources, testing actions in the environment, and learning from the consequences. That is when the gap between organisational readiness and agent capability becomes genuinely dangerous for the unprepared.

The room at Oxford reinforced something Jamie and I have been seeing consistently in our client work. The framing problem is not solved by more technology literacy. It is solved by structured thinking about what agentic AI actually changes — in customer relationships, in operations, in governance, and in the assumptions buried inside every business process you currently run.

That is a harder problem than installing a tool. It is also a more important one.

How We Found Our ICP — And Why We Are Telling You

I want to be transparent about something, because I think the openness is useful.

When Jamie and I were planning Trusted Agents, we did not just ask ourselves who might want what we do. We used a framework from the book Levers by Ryan Tansom — specifically the W3 method — to pressure-test our assumptions.

The three questions are simple. Who do you believe your customer is, and what data do you have to prove it? What do they actually buy from you — not what you sell, but what they buy? And why do they buy it?

They sound obvious. They are not. Most businesses answer them from instinct and stop there. The discipline is in checking the answers against evidence, and then being honest about what the evidence says.

Here is how we worked through them.

Who. We kept returning to the same profile. Not the CTO. Not the CDO. Not the transformation programme lead who has already been given a budget and a mandate. The person we consistently found ourselves most useful to was earlier than that — and more interesting. The innovator inside a medium to large B2C organisation who can see the shift coming, has been given or has taken on the responsibility for making sense of it, and is surrounded by people who are either dismissive or paralysed. Personally ambitious. Intellectually ahead of the organisation. Carrying the weight of a technology shift that their peers have not yet fully registered.

In Geoffrey Moore's terms — and this matters for how we think about timing — this person is an innovator operating inside an early or late majority organisation. They are not a startup founder. They are not a frontier AI lab. They are someone trying to move a complex, regulated, human-filled organisation toward a structural shift that the organisation does not yet have the language to discuss.

What. This one took us longer to answer honestly. We do not sell implementation. We do not sell model selection. We do not sell proof of concept factories. What our clients actually buy — when we were rigorous about it — is clarity, orientation, and the confidence to move their organisation forward before the window closes. They buy the thinking, the framing, and the shared language that allows them to have conversations internally that they could not have before. They buy the stage before the formal programme. They are buying the conditions that make everything else possible.

Why. Because they need to become the internal leader who turns agentic AI confusion into credible next steps — without sounding like they are repeating vendor hype. The personal stakes are real. This technology shift is moving faster than any they have managed before. The organisations that get the framing right early will have a material advantage. The leaders who create that clarity will be remembered for it. The ones who wait for consensus will be managing someone else's roadmap.

We are sharing this reasoning because we think it matters. If you have read this far and recognised yourself in that description, that recognition was not accidental. It was the result of Jamie and I asking hard questions about who we are genuinely useful to — and being honest about the answers.

The Demand Signal and the Capacity Question

Something has shifted in the last few months.

The conversations we are having with banks, travel companies, and retailers have changed in character. Twelve months ago the questions were exploratory — what is this, where is it going, should we be paying attention. Now the questions are operational. What does this mean for our customer relationships specifically. Where are our processes exposed. How do we brief our board without either overhyping or understating what is coming. How do we move hundreds of people from awareness to a shared point of view without creating chaos.

That shift in the quality of the question tells us the market has moved. Leaders who were watching are now feeling the pressure to act, and they are looking for something that most of the market is not yet providing — not a vendor pitch, not a generic AI literacy programme, but a structured way to think clearly about what agentic commerce actually changes, and where to direct attention first.

That is the gap Jamie and I have been working in. And it is getting busier.

We work with a small number of partners who extend what we can offer. Warren Hutchinson and his team at ELSE London bring deep customer experience expertise to the engagements where journey design and service redesign are central. Dr Joanna Michalska at Ethica Group works with us where governance, ethics, and organisational accountability are in focus. Bernardo Crespo works with us to serve the fast-growing Spanish-speaking market. These are people we trust and have chosen carefully — because the quality of what we deliver depends on it.

We are also working on a way to scale Trusted Agents that does not dilute what makes the work valuable. That is not a solved problem yet. We are not going to grow a pyramid of consultants and call it the same thing. What we deliver works because of the depth of thinking Jamie and I bring directly to each engagement. Protecting that while meeting growing demand is a problem worth solving carefully.

What that means in practice, for now, is that our capacity is finite. We are getting booked. If the shift described in this edition is landing close to home — if you are the person in your organisation who has been asked to make sense of this, and you are feeling the weight of that responsibility — the right time to reach out is before you have everything figured out, not after.

That is exactly the stage we are built for.

The Stage Before the Programme

There is a particular moment that many of the leaders we work with describe in almost identical terms.

They can see the shift coming. They have enough context to know it is serious. But their organisation has not yet developed the shared understanding needed to act — no common language, no agreed point of view, no internal momentum. They are not blocked by a failed pilot. They are earlier than that. They are trying to create the conditions that make good decisions possible, before anyone is ready to make them.

That is a specific and demanding place to be. It requires moving executives who are sceptical, peers who are distracted, and teams who are waiting for direction — all at the same time, without the authority that comes with a formal mandate or a signed-off budget.

It is also exactly the stage Trusted Agents is built for.

A two-hour executive briefing gives leadership teams a precise, grounded understanding of what agentic AI means for their customers, their operations, and their competitive position — without hype, without vendor agenda, and without the organisation having to commit to anything yet.

A four-week strategy sprint takes that understanding and turns it into a shared point of view, a risk map, and early planning assets that internal leaders can actually use.

Where the work needs to go further — into product design, customer journey redesign, or go-to-market implications — we scope that as a four to eight week engagement, shaped around what the organisation specifically needs.

If any of this matches where you are, we offer a free thirty-minute conversation. No agenda other than understanding your situation.

Reach us at shift@trustedagents.ai

A question for you

One question I would genuinely like your answer to.

What does your organisation currently believe about agentic commerce — and how confident are you that belief will hold up over the next two years?

Hit reply. we read every response.

Until Next Week

The infrastructure is going in. The forecasts are landing. The leaders who create clarity now — before their organisations are formally ready to act — will set the terms for everyone else.

Jamie and I built Trusted Agents for this moment. We are glad it has arrived.

Until next week.

Gam

Co-founder, Trusted Agents shift@trustedagents.ai

Trusted Agents

An advisory firm specialising in Agentic Commerce, Digital Trust and Customer Empowerment.

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